Palembang's air was modelled at a PM2.5 of 127.1 µg/m³ and a US AQI of 174 at 7am WIB on 22 October 2026 (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026). That is about 8 times the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 (WHO, 2021). It is a model estimate. If your ride cannot wait, fit a sealed N95 first.
The model also shows how quickly it moves. At midnight on 21 October it read 34.0, then 103.4 by 3pm the same day (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026). A rider who set out in clean air could come home in smoke.
Key takeaways
- Palembang's modelled PM2.5 was 127.1 µg/m³ (US AQI 174) at 7am WIB on 22 October 2026, after 103.4 at 3pm on 21 October (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026).
- Palembang's health office counted 6,296 acute respiratory infection (ISPA) cases from 1 to 12 October 2026, about 636 a day (detikHealth, 2026).
- In Central Kalimantan homes, indoor PM2.5 matched outdoor PM2.5 (median ratio 1.01), so staying in is a weak shield (Graham et al., 2024).
- Modelling suggests a sealed N95 cuts exposure more than 14 times, against 1.7 times for a surgical mask (Kodros et al., 2021).
What the readings and studies actually measured
Today's numbers come from the Copernicus CAMS air quality model, served through Open-Meteo for the Palembang grid point. It is a model of smoke transport, not a sensor on a roof. I could not find a published ground reading for today, so treat every figure here as an estimate (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026).
Models can be trusted more than you might expect. Around Palangka Raya, a low-cost sensor network found relatively strong CAMS performance during the extreme 2019 fires (Grosvenor et al., 2024). The same paper warns that accuracy in extreme conditions is not fully understood.
An hourly model value is not a daily average, so read the WHO comparison as the size of the spike, not a daily dose. The WHO guideline of 15 µg/m³ covers 24 hours (WHO, 2021).
Why this is a repeat, not a one-off
The smoke has already left a mark on the city's clinics. Palembang's health office found 6,296 ISPA cases between 1 and 12 October, an average of 636 a day (detikHealth, 2026).
Children are among those most affected. One public hospital, RSUD BARI, treated 36 ISPA patients between 1 and 7 October, mostly children (detikHealth, 2026).
The smoke also travels. At 8am today the official 24-hour PSI in western Singapore was 108, with a 24-hour PM2.5 of 63 (NEA, 2026). Fire smoke from this region does not stay in one city.
Check the hourly reading before you leave and again before the ride home. On 21 October the model had mid afternoon at about 3 times the midnight level (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026).
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Why staying inside does not fix it
Median ratio of indoor to outdoor PM2.5 in rural Central Kalimantan homes during fire smoke. A ratio of 1 means no protection at all.
Source: Graham et al., GeoHealth, 2024Graham and colleagues put sensors inside and outside homes on Borneo. Mean outdoor PM2.5 was 136 µg/m³ across September and October 2023, and smoke came straight in (Graham et al., 2024).
The long view is sobering too. On Sumatra, every 10 µg/m³ of long-term PM2.5 was linked to a 19% higher risk of respiratory death (hazard ratio 1.19) (Siregar et al., 2024). That study tracked 2,409 adults aged 40 and over, using satellite-based exposure estimates (Siregar et al., 2024).
Why a rider breathes more than the model says
A model averages a grid square. A rider sits in open air, in the exhaust of the vehicle ahead. In Makassar, motorcycle riders breathed 4 times the PM2.5 of car riders on the same trips (Patel et al., 2016).
That study was not in a haze week, and nobody has measured the gap in Palembang. Treat 127.1 as a background figure. What you breathe at a busy junction is probably higher.
What to do on your ride today
- Delay or shorten the ride. The model had 3pm on 21 October at 103.4, far above midnight (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026).
- Wear a fitted N95 or KN95 and press it to your face every time. The 14 times figure assumes a 5% leak (Kodros et al., 2021).
- Do not count on the house. Indoor smoke matched outdoor smoke in Central Kalimantan homes (Graham et al., 2024).
- Check the official ISPU too. Compare the KLH station reading with the model before you trust either.
- For filtered air that does not depend on a face seal, look at an active HEPA helmet system.
For the wider picture, see when the haze will be gone and the live haze map for riders.
Frequently asked questions
What is the air quality in Palembang today?
The CAMS model put PM2.5 at 127.1 µg/m³ and the US AQI at 174 at 7am WIB on 22 October 2026 (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026). It is an estimate. Check the KLH ISPU for the station value.
Is the Palembang haze getting worse?
It comes in waves. The model swung from 34.0 to 103.4 within 15 hours on 21 October (Open-Meteo CAMS, 2026), and clinics counted 636 ISPA cases a day in early October (detikHealth, 2026).
Does a normal face mask work against haze?
Surgical masks cut exposure only about 1.7 times in modelling. A sealed N95 or KN95 does far better, but only if it fits (Kodros et al., 2021).
The research behind this: 4 studies
Peer reviewed work this post is built on. Each card says what was measured, what was found, and what it cannot tell you.
Smoke sensors in Central Kalimantan
- What they measured
- 13 low-cost PM2.5 sensors across urban and rural sites, indoors and outdoors, from 1 September to 31 October 2023.
- What they found
- Mean outdoor PM2.5 was 136 µg/m³, and the median indoor to outdoor ratio was 1.01 in rural homes.
- What it can't tell you
- Central Kalimantan in 2023, not Palembang in 2026, and the sensors are low-cost units.
The extreme 2019 peat fires around Palangka Raya
- What they measured
- A low-cost sensor network around Palangka Raya in the 2019 fire season, used to test the CAMS model.
- What they found
- The model performed relatively well. Estimated excess deaths were over 1,200 in the Palangka Raya region and over 3,200 across Central Kalimantan.
- What it can't tell you
- One city in one extreme year. Model accuracy in extreme conditions is not fully understood.
Long-term PM2.5 and death on Sumatra
- What they measured
- 2,409 adults aged 40 and over from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, followed from 2000 to 2014, matched to satellite-based PM2.5 estimates.
- What they found
- Per 10 µg/m³ of PM2.5, the hazard ratio was 1.10 for all natural deaths and 1.19 for respiratory deaths.
- What it can't tell you
- It measures long-term averages, not a single smoke week, and exposure comes from satellite estimates.
How much a mask actually cuts exposure
- What they measured
- A modelling framework for masks and respirators covering filter efficiency, fit and particle size.
- What they found
- An N95 with a 5% leak rate cut exposure by more than 14 times. Surgical masks cut it 1.7 times.
- What it can't tell you
- A model, not a field trial. The N95 result depends on a seal that real riders often lose.
Sources
- Open-Meteo (2026). Air Quality API, CAMS global model data for Palembang. Retrieved 22 October 2026.
- detikHealth (2026). Kabut Asap Mencekik Palembang, Kasus ISPA Tembus 6.000 Pasien. Published 14 October 2026.
- National Environment Agency Singapore (2026). Real-time PSI API. Reading of 8am SGT, 22 October 2026.
- World Health Organization (2021). WHO global air quality guidelines.
- Graham, A. M. et al. (2024). Updated smoke exposure estimate for Indonesian peatland fires using a network of low-cost PM2.5 sensors and a regional air quality model. GeoHealth.
- Grosvenor, M. J. et al. (2024). Catastrophic impact of extreme 2019 Indonesian peatland fires on urban air quality and health. Communications Earth & Environment.
- Siregar, S. et al. (2024). Association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality on Sumatra Island: Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2000-2014. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.
- Kodros, J. K. et al. (2021). Quantifying the health benefits of face masks and respirators to mitigate exposure to severe air pollution. GeoHealth.
- Patel, D., Shibata, T., Wilson, J., Maidin, A. (2016). Challenges in evaluating PM concentration levels, commuting exposure, and mask efficacy in reducing PM exposure in growing, urban communities in a developing country. Science of the Total Environment.
Written by Ash, mechanical engineer and founder of Easi Breezi, building an active HEPA filtration system for motorcycle helmets (patent pending). Based between Hong Kong and Bali, riding daily in the traffic this blog writes about.